from Sunday Herald, 29 December 2013
Global warming could cut commercial fish catches around Scotland by 20 per cent while they increase by ten per cent around the south of England, according to a new study by over 150 government and university scientists.
Gradually rising temperatures caused by climate pollution could drive porpoises, minke whales and white-beaked dolphins away from Scotland's shores. The sea will also become increasingly acidic, which could harm some marine wildlife, the study says.
The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership has released its report card for 2013. It summarises the latest research from more than 50 leading UK science organisations, including Scottish Natural Heritage, Marine Scotland and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency.
The report points out that over the last 30 years landings of cold-water fish like cod, haddock and whiting from the North East Atlantic have halved. Over coming decades, it predicts that this trend will continue.
Northern UK seas like the central and northern North Sea will become “up to 20 per cent less productive, with clear implications for fisheries,” it says. But at the same time southern seas like the English Channel and the Celtic Sea will become up to ten per cent more productive.
Although fish that prefer warmer water like hake and anchovy might increase, the cold-water species that have traditionally been a mainstay of the Scottish fishing industry will decline. Climate projections suggest that fish will move northwards faster than in the past.
The number of white-beaked dolphins, harbour porpoises and minke whales look likely to decline around the east and north of Scotland, the report says. Other species of striped and short-beaked dolphins may increase, as they move from southern waters.
“The current rate of increase in acidity is probably more rapid now than any time in the last 300 million years,” the report says. This has a complex effect on wildlife, with some species being more tolerant than others.
The extent of sea ice in the Arctic has reached record lows in each of the last seven years, with the lowest in September 2012. The report says that the rate at which the ice is thinning has increased from 60 centimetres a decade before 2008 to 75 centimetres a decade now.
“This is a worrying report and confirms that major changes are coming for Scotland’s marine environment, with water temperatures and acidity both rising, and important fish stocks and wildlife on the move,” said WWF Scotland director, Lang Banks.
“Of particular concern is the threat posed by climate change to Scotland’s fishing industry and those communities that depend upon it. It would be a great pity if all the good work being done to increase fish stocks were to be undone by climate change.”
Banks urged governments to keep reducing the carbon emissions from power stations, transport and industry blamed for disrupting the climate. “The threat posed to Scotland’s precious seas should act as a reminder to politicians for the continuing need for concerted action to cut climate pollution,” he argued.
According to Sarah Dolman, the Northeast Atlantic programme manager for Whale and Dolphin Conservation, the future for Scottish white-beaked dolphins was bleak. “Already at the southern extent of their range in Scottish waters, our predictions show we will lose them altogether in coming decades,” she said.
“A coherent network of marine protected areas, that includes whales and dolphins, will alleviate other pressures in critical habitats. Alongside shifts and reductions in energy usage, we need government commitment to effective management of these areas.”
The fishing industry commended the new study, but sounded a note of caution. “Any scientific study that shows a potential impact on the fishing industry of climate change is of interest to us and our stakeholders,” said Paul Williams, chief executive of the industry body, Seafish.
“There remains, in any of these reports, a lot of detail below the headlines and we note the report shows low confidence in its conclusions on some fisheries and only medium confidence in some of those that have grabbed the headlines."
He added: “Nonetheless it is important to understand any potential scenarios as clearly as possible, and having worked with many of the contributors to this report on a range of environmental issues over the years, we’d be keen to engage on behalf of the seafood industry.”
The report highlights how little is known about climate change impacts on the marine economy, despite its importance for food, energy and transport. Coastal tourism and marine recreation could be hurt by flooding and erosion, it warns.
“The marine environment is subject to a wide range of man-made pressures but can also change in response to natural processes,” said Dr Matthew Frost, a scientist from the Marine Biological Association who chaired the report’s working group.
“Disentangling these factors to enable identification of current and potential future impacts of climate change continues to be one of the greatest challenges facing marine scientists today.”
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