Higher food bills, and eating less meat

from Sunday Herald, 09 March 2008

Families in Scotland are going to be hit by ever higher food bills, while the nation’s farmers could play a vital role feeding the world in the future. But we may all need to eat less meat to help save the planet.

These are the main messages from Scottish food specialists worried about the growing world food crisis. As a relatively rich developed country, Scotland is unlikely to experience mass starvation, but it will have to undergo some radical changes.

The UK Office for National Statistics says that the average price of all foods has increased by 6.6% over the last year. The biggest increases of between 11% and 36% were for butter, eggs, milk, bread and potatoes (see table below).

The cost of a supermarket trolley containing 100 basic food items has risen by £13.63 to £183.28 over the last two years, according to a survey for The Grocer magazine. The cost of half a dozen eggs jumped from £1.01 to £1.39, while a 800g loaf of white bread leapt from 83p to £1.10.

The price of chicken, fish. cheese, vegetables and fruit have also increased, along with sugar, coffee and wine. One supermarket survey suggests that some types of pasta have increased by up to 50% in price since last February.

And the prices are forecast to keep on rising. The OECD club of 30 developed countries has predicted increases in the cost of food of between 20% and 50% over the next decade.

John Scott, the Scottish Conservative MSP and Ayrshire hill farmer, thinks the increases could be even higher. “The era of cheap food is coming to an end, and that has huge implications for those on fixed incomes,” he said.

“There is a realistic possibility that there won’t be bread on the shelves,” he argued. Mounting concern about food security was “just a nice way of saying that food scarcity is just around the corner.”

But Scott believes that Scotland could have a very important role to play, as global warming damages the ability of other regions of the world to grow food. In the future, he suggests, global food production could be centred on the belt of fertile land in the northern hemisphere blessed by rain between Bordeaux and Caithness.

“Land is going to have to be brought back into production to feed an ever-expanding world population,” he said. “Scotland is singularly well-place to play its part in feeding an ever more hungry world.”

Others, however, point out that Scotland has its own problems to solve first. A pioneering analysis for the environmental group, WWF Scotland, revealed that eating meat was responsible for 44% of the environmental impact of the nation’s diet.

Globally meat is a hugely inefficient way of delivering calories, with eight kilos of grain required to produce one kilo of beef. Although Highland beef and venison may have a lower impact, much of the meat consumed in Scotland has been imported.

“There is more to sustainability than eating local food and reducing food miles,” said Adam Harrison, a food policy specialist with WWF Scotland. “Eating more fresh and seasonal fruit and vegetables and less processed and packaged food as well as less meat and dairy produce will be as good for us as it is for the planet.”

THE RISING PRICE OF FOOD

food / price increase over year to January 2008

butter / 36.2%
eggs / 30.3%
fresh milk / 16.6%
milk products / 13.9%
bread / 14.3%
potatoes / 11.3%
poultry / 9.9%
fish / 9.8%
cheese / 9.7%
biscuits and cakes / 7%
vegetables / 7%
cereals / 6.9%
sweets and chocolates / 6.7%
oils and fats / 5.5%
fruit / 5.1%
sugar and preserves / 4.1%
soft drinks / 3.7%
pork / 3.1%
coffee and other hot drinks / 1.3%
other foods / 3.9%

all food / 6.6%

source: Office for National Statistics