from New Scientist, 07 September 2005
The world has made enough explosives for more than 300,000 nuclear bombs, according to the latest scientific assessment of countries' nuclear stockpiles.
Stores of plutonium are growing, and there are new dangers from two lesser-known nuclear explosives, neptunium-237 and americium. Experts are worried that terrorists could steal enough to trigger a nuclear catastrophe.
"Our first concern is the risk of nuclear terrorism," says David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a think tank in Washington, DC, US. "We worry about what could happen in Russia, Pakistan, India and China."
Nuclear stores in Europe and Japan could also be vulnerable to theft, he warns. "Even the best protected bank can be robbed," he told New Scientist. "Someone, maybe an insider, could make off with something - and then we'll have hell to pay."
Spent fuel
An updated global nuclear inventory, published by ISIS on Wednesday, reveals that there were 1830 tonnes of plutonium in 35 countries at the end of 2003. That is enough to make 225,000 nuclear bombs.
The total amount of plutonium, which is created in nuclear reactors, is increasing by 70 tonnes per year, the report says. Most of it is combined with radioactive waste in spent fuel, and is hence relatively difficult to access.
But ISIS points out that 238 tonnes has been extracted by reprocessing plants, and that this total is expected to rise to 286 tonnes by 2010. The largest stockpile - 90 tonnes - will be owned by the UK, followed by Japan (62 tonnes), Russia (50), France (48) and Germany (27).
Efforts to reduce these stockpiles by blending the plutonium into mixed oxide (MOX) fuel for power reactors are “not going well", Albright says. World stores of highly enriched uranium, however, are on the decline, though there were still 1900 tonnes in more than 50 countries. That is enough for over 75,000 bombs.
Problems looming
The ISIS report also highlights the risks from neptunium-237 and americium, which declassified information from the US government suggests can be made into bombs. At the end of 2003, there were more than 140 tonnes of the two materials in 32 countries. If separated from other wastes, that would be enough for 5000 weapons.
This presents a problem that has not been appreciated by the authorities, Albright argues. "It's looming on the horizon and people aren't thinking it through," he says.
The estimates of nuclear stockpiles made by ISIS are widely regarded as amongst the most authoritative available. "ISIS is performing a valuable service in publishing this information," says Dave Andrews, a consultant to the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), based in London and Washington, DC.
"The increasing worldwide civil stocks of separated plutonium represent a considerable proliferation risk which is too often ignored," he says. "Likewise, official pronouncements pay little heed to the proliferation potential of highly enriched uranium."
